Mortgage rates have already done a lot of zigging and zagging in 2026.

Early in the year, the administration announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. That gave rates a little temporary relief, and for a brief moment, we saw mortgage rates flirt with the high 5s.

Just a quick reminder: These articles I share here are researched and written by me! As part of my commitment to ongoing support for my clients and partners, I write these articles to help them understand what’s really happening in the markets, beyond the headlines and soundbites.

But the bounce didn’t last. Markets soon had to deal with fresh drama surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell, including news of a criminal probe tied to the Fed renovation controversy, and rates pushed back higher.

Then, heading into late February, things started to feel better. Rates were easing back down, the market felt a little calmer, and for a short stretch it looked like we might get some much-needed stability.

The Spread

One positive story in housing this year has been The Spread: This is the gap between the 10-year Treasury Bond and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Historically, that spread is between 1.6% & 1.8%.

After the pandemic, the spread surged to as high as 3%. When the spread is high like that, mortgage rates stay elevated even when Treasury yields and broader markets fall.

Recently, that spread has improved to 1.87%. This has helped keep mortgage rates from surging even as the market has digested news that typically would cause rates to rise.

Now what?

And now we’ve got a brand-new wildcard: the latest Middle East conflict.

That matters because when oil jumps, inflation concerns usually jump with it. And when inflation worries rise, mortgage rates don’t usually love that. Reuters reported today that oil prices moved sharply higher, which is one of the reasons bond markets are on edge right now.

There is one possible offset, though.

A silver lining?

Today’s jobs report showed the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, with unemployment rising to 4.4%. That weaker data could increase the odds of a Fed rate cut later this year. That doesn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates, but it does help explain why rates haven’t completely blown out.

So right now, rates are being pulled in two directions.

Conflict in the Middle East & higher oil prices are headwinds. A weaker job market could be a tailwind.

That probably means more volatility ahead — not necessarily a straight shot higher, but definitely not a smooth ride either.

If you found this interesting or helpful, please feel free to share it with a friend, family member, or co-worker – it’s my goal to educate and empower as many people as possible during this incredibly unique time in housing!

Here is how I can help!

- If you are looking to purchase a new home or have questions about your mortgage, the market, getting preapproved, etc., or

- If you are a Realtor Broker, or Financial Services Professional looking for a lender with great financing solutions to help educate your clients on the state of the market to help them feel good about their decisions,

Please call today – I am happy to help however I can!

I am a twenty-year veteran of the mortgage and real estate industry. My experience across nearly all aspects of real estate makes me an incredibly well-rounded problem-solver. My clients are treated to a white-glove client experience every single time. Education, information, and communication are the cornerstones of my approach.

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