A few months ago, mortgage rates quietly dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022. Spring was looking good. Then the U.S. and Israel struck Iran — and everything changed fast.

About 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran shut it down. Oil prices nearly doubled — from around $60 a barrel to $100. That one fact set off a chain reaction that goes straight to your mortgage rate.

Intro: Just a quick reminder: These articles I share here are researched and written by me! As part of my commitment to ongoing support for my clients and partners, I write these articles to help them understand what’s really happening in the markets, beyond the headlines and soundbites.

The bond market doesn’t wait for the Fed to act — it prices in what it expects the Fed to do. Right now, with oil spiking and inflation fears rising, the market has basically written off any hope of a rate cut in 2026. That pushes the 10-year Treasury yield higher. And mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury — they have for 50 years.

We’ve seen this before. Oil spiked in the late 1970s and mortgage rates hit 18% by 1981. It happened again heading into 2008. The numbers are different today, but the mechanics are the same.

Rates climbed five straight weeks after the conflict began. A Spring market that had real momentum is now stalled. Some of the most respected analysts in housing are watching this closely — and the message is consistent: don’t try to time the market!

If life is telling you to buy a house, buy the house. And if you’re buying now, lock your rate sooner rather than later. Rates could still fall — but right now, the risks point the other way.

If you found this interesting or helpful, please feel free to share it with a friend, family member, or co-worker – it’s my goal to educate and empower as many people as possible during this incredibly unique time in housing!

Here is how I can help!

If you are looking to purchase a new home or have questions about the market, getting preapproved, etc., or
If you are a Realtor or a Broker looking for a lender with great financing solutions to help educate your clients on the state of the market to help them feel good about their decisions,

Please call today – I am happy to help however I can!

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