There’s no crystal ball, but there are some common themes among the forecasts.

In previous newsletters, we’ve examined what’s happened in the housing market.  Today we’ll take a quick look at predictions for 2023 by some of the industry’s leading organizations.

Just a quick reminder:  These articles I share here are researched and written by me!  As part of my commitment to ongoing support for my clients and partners, I write these articles to help them understand what’s really happening in the markets, beyond the headlines and soundbites.

There are a few key areas worth exploring.  In no particular order, those areas are: 

• Home prices
• Home sales (number of properties sold)
• Mortgage interest rates

Unfortunately, not every organization tracks each of these, but we’ll explore the information that’s available.

National Association of Realtors (NAR):

                Home sales:        A 7% decline in home sales activity vs. 2022

                Home prices:      A 1% increase to the national average home price

NAR is predicting a strong rebound of the housing market in 2024, anticipating a 10% increase in sales activity and a 5% increase in the national median home price.

(Source:  NAR)  

CoreLogic:

                Home prices:      +3.2% in 2023

(Source:  CoreLogic)

Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA):

                Home sales:        a 9% decline in home sales activity vs. 2022

                Home prices:      To remain flat (0% +/-) for 2023, 2024

                Interest rates:   ~ 5.4% by December 31, 2023

(Source:  MBA)

These predictions should give us some confidence in the housing market as we look towards 2023 and beyond.  Yes, the market is cooling off due in large part to higher interest rates, but the underlying supply challenges have been a silver lining to property values.

You’ll notice that none of these organizations are predicting anything close to a repeat of 2008.  For reference, a “normal” amount of home price appreciation is generally regarded as 3-4%.  In that respect, these forecasts reflect a return to a more traditional housing market.

In our next newsletter, I’ll explore what’s been happening in the financial markets, which in turn affect mortgage interest rates.  And as we’ve seen first-hand, mortgage interest rates can have a big impact on the housing market overall, both in terms of home prices and affordability.

If you found this interesting or helpful, please feel free to share it with a friend, family member, or co-worker – it’s my goal to educate & empower as many people as possible during this unique time!

If you have any questions about what you’ve read here, about the market in general, or your situation, please reach out!  We are here to help however we can!