I know it’s the time of year where our attention is on vacation and trips to the lake, but I wanted to quickly share some important news.  A new report was released that sheds some light on the direction that experts think home prices are headed.

Just a quick reminder:  These articles I share here are researched and written by me!  As part of my commitment to ongoing support for my clients and partners, I write these articles to help them understand what’s really happening in the markets, beyond the headlines and soundbites.

Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectation Survey was released last month.  It’s a survey in which 100+ housing experts give their forecast for home prices for the end of 2028.

Some important takeaways:

• The largest price increase forecasted was 41.83%
• The largest price decrease forecasted was 3.25%
• On average, prices were forecasted to rise 20.8% by the end of 2028

About that price crash..?

There is a belief among some that prices will crash as real estate activity slows down.

But we’ve already experienced the fastest and steepest real estate crash in history – the crash in sales activity – in 2022.  In fact, in 2023, there were only 3.78 million real estate sales (existing homes only).  For reference, at the lowest point of sales activity during the Great Financial Crisis, we saw just 3.77 million sales in a year.

And what did home prices do in 2023?  Continued to rise!

Against this backdrop, it’s easy to understand why most experts expect home prices to continue to rise over the next few years. 

Keep an eye on labor

Housing analysts are keeping an eye on the labor market, which has softened a bit over the past few months.   Some think that a major job-loss recession could be the domino that causes home prices to crash.  But it’s hard to imagine that, since real estate sales activity is trending at the lowest levels and price has remained strong.

But the FED has been clear that once the labor market breaks, they will begin cutting rates.  Some analysts think that once the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims hits 323k, the FED will begin cutting rates.

And if mortgage rates fall as a result, we may well see more buyers enter the market, putting more upward pressure on home prices.  Any job-loss recession would have to be deep and prolonged to lead to any serious crash in home prices.

If you find this interesting or helpful, please feel free to share it with a friend, family member, or co-worker – it’s my goal to educate and empower as many people as possible during this incredibly unique time in housing!

Here is how I can help!

• If you are looking to purchase a new home or have questions about your mortgage, the market, getting preapproved, etc., or
• If you are a Realtor or a Broker looking for a lender with great financing solutions to help educate your clients on the state of the market to help them feel good about their decisions,

Please call today – I am happy to help however I can!

Brian Mutter is a twenty-year veteran of the mortgage and real estate industry.  His vast experience across nearly all aspects of real estate makes him an incredibly well-rounded problem-solver.  Brian’s clients are treated to a white-glove client experience every single time.  Education, information, and communication are the cornerstones to his approach.

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📧 brian@goforwardmortgage.com 

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